🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.