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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."